The Risk vs Reward of Training: Understanding Your Workload







As a physiotherapist, one of the most common conversations I have with people isn’t about whether training is good for them — it’s about how much is enough, and how much is too much. Training harder can make you fitter and faster, but only if your body is prepared for that load. Push too far, too fast, and the risk of injury can rise.

One of the most useful tools we have to manage this balance is the Acute to Chronic Workload Ratio (ACWR).


What Is Acute to Chronic Workload Ratio?

ACWR compares how much training you’ve done recently (acute load) to how much training your body is used to (chronic load).


Acute workload = training load from the last 7 days

Chronic workload = average weekly training load over the last 4 weeks


The ratio tells us whether your recent training spike is appropriate or potentially risky.


How Do You Calculate Training Load?

A simple and practical method is using session RPE (Rate of Perceived Exertion):


Training Load = Session Duration (minutes) × RPE (out of 10)


For example:


• 60 minutes of running at 7/10 RPE

• 60 × 7 = 420 units


This method is widely supported in the literature and is easy to use without fancy technology. You would calculate this number for every session and add them together to get weekly totals.


Calculating ACWR: A Simple Example

Let’s say your last 7 days (acute load) total 2,100 units.

Your last 4 weeks average (chronic load) is 2,000 units per week.


ACWR = Acute Load ÷ Chronic Load

2,100 ÷ 2,000 = 1.05


This puts you in a very safe and effective training zone.


What Is the Ideal Range?







Research (notably by Gabbett and colleagues) consistently shows:


0.8 – 1.3 → Ideal training zone

Balanced risk vs reward, best adaptation

Below 0.8 → Undertraining

Fitness may stagnate, body less prepared for harder sessions

Above 1.5 → High injury risk

Sudden spikes in load significantly increase injury likelihood


Studies have shown that athletes exceeding an ACWR of 1.5 may have up to a 2–4× increased injury risk compared to those training within the ideal range.


How Should You Track This?

A simple spreadsheet or notebook works perfectly. Each day, record:


• Session type (run, gym, cross-training)

• Duration (minutes)

• RPE

• Training load (minutes × RPE)


At the end of the week:


1. Add up the last 7 days → Acute load

2. Calculate the average of the last 4 weeks → Chronic load

3. Divide acute by chronic


Consistency matters more than perfection.







Key Takeaways


• Injuries rarely come from one hard session — they come from sudden changes in workload • Gradual progression allows tissues (muscles, tendons, bones) time to adapt

• High chronic load with controlled spikes is safer than low fitness with sudden big weeks

• ACWR is a guide, not a rule — pain, sleep, stress, and recovery still matter


If you respect the balance between risk and reward, you’re far more likely to train consistently, stay healthy, and actually enjoy the process.